Below is the write up for this week’s trade setup flagged by the system + a few other tickers & flow that are catching my eye, let’s dive in!

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Signal fired 07/23/26 · Published 07/31/26

What’s happening

The flow

Eight bull sessions, 70% premium dominance ($4.4M bull vs $1.9M bear). Two floor prints anchor it: July 16, 7,100x — “BUY 7100x $25C 2026-12-18 @$1.7” and “BUY 7100x $18C 2026-12-18 @$3.09,” $2.19M walked to the floor; then July 21, another floor vertical — “SELL 5000x $25C 2027-01-15 @$1.45 / BUY 5000x $19C 2027-01-15 @$2.45,” $1.23M. Add a July 14 $12 put sale, $120K, fills kept rising. Stacks of $20 calls throughout. IV basically flat — this is accumulation, not a vol chase. Caveat: nearly all of it expires through earnings, so weight it as event-tied more than clean swing size.

The setup

Our buy signal fired 2026-07-23 with NN basing near $12.67 after a long grind lower. Spot’s back to $12.73; the institutional floor is $12, right where they sold puts. Mixed broad tape — half size, let entries come. Expect a -6 to -8% shake before it works.

Context: 444x sales, “the flow IS the thesis here”; 16% short float — squeeze fuel.

Invalidation

Thesis is wrong on a daily close below $11.27.

Full desk notes

The story

Institutions have spent July laddering up the call side of NextNav (NN), and the fingerprints are unusually clean: a $2.19M multileg on the $18/25 December line, a $1.23M call vertical the following week, and repeated $20-strike buying in between. Our buy signal fired on 2026-07-23 with the stock closing at $12.67; it now sits at $12.73, so the setup is essentially still at the trigger — the first leg has not run, and that means you can work orders patiently rather than chase. One piece of context you must hold in your head the whole time: NN is priced at 444x sales with revenue down 35% year-over-year, so this is a spectrum-optionality story where the flow is the thesis, not a valuation call. That framing matters for sizing more than direction.

The company & the calendar

NextNav Inc. provides positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) solutions in the United States — a would-be terrestrial complement to GPS, with the equity trading on spectrum upside rather than current fundamentals. The numbers are extreme: forward P/E of -17.9, price-to-sales of 444x, gross margin negative, and “16% of the float is short — squeeze fuel, and a crowd that fights rallies.” Coverage is thin but loud: 3 analysts, strong_buy rating, targets from $22 low to $33.67 mean to $50 high against a $12.73 tape — the street is well ahead of price, which cuts both ways here. Next earnings land 2026-08-11, inside the window. The news rhymes with the flow: Zacks upgraded NN to Strong Buy on 2026-07-23 and separately flagged a “buy the dip” after a 24.6% four-week drop, while Simply Wall St. noted spectrum upside on 2026-07-21 — but note the biggest prints (July 16, July 21) preceded the loudest headlines. Quiet accumulation into the tape, then the upgrade. That ordering is the better tell.

The tape, day by day

The pattern is escalation, not a one-off: small $20-call probes early, then two heavyweight structured entries ($2.19M and $1.23M) that reset the whole complex. Bull premium totals $4.39M against $1.87M bearish, roughly 70% dominance across 8 bullish sessions. The same call ladder — $18, $19, $20, $25 — keeps reappearing under different expiries.

The receipts

Open-interest confirmation separates real positioning from noise. The anchor print — $18C 2026-12-18, 7,100 contracts, $2.19M — verified clean: OI went from 57 to 7,171, an oi_delta of 7,114. New money. The $19C 2027-01-15 vertical, 5,000 lots, $1.23M also confirmed: OI 7,502 to 12,505. The $25C 2027-01-15, 1,142 lots, $176,993 confirmed too (OI 3,533 to 4,543). And the $12P sale that builds the floor — 998 contracts, $119,790 — confirmed 746 to 1,444. What did not confirm: the heavy $20C 2027-01-15 cluster from July 17 (alert size 1,289) actually saw OI fall 14,658 to 8,740 — those did not register as new longs, and the bear-structure note lists $20C 2027-01-15 call sales totaling over $950K. Read the $20 line as contested; read $18, $19, and $25 as accumulation.

The levels

The defended map is narrow and specific: institutions sold the $12 put for $119,790 — they are paid to defend $12. That is the floor with money behind it. Our invalidation sits at $11.27. Between here and there is normal noise; on a name this volatile, expect a -6% to -8% shake-out toward the $11.70s before any move — that is typical, not thesis failure. Below $11.27 on a daily close, the floor logic breaks.

Three ways to play it

All prices below are Black-Scholes estimates for sizing — check the chain before entry. IV is estimated near 108% from this name’s own prints.

Call debit spread $13/15 (2026-12-18)

• Legs: BUY 1x $13C / SELL 1x $15C, 2026-12-18

• Est. cost $65/contract; max loss $65; max gain $135; breakeven $13.65; R:R 2.08; estimated chance of profit 0.34

• Why: mirrors the institutional call strikes ($13 bought, $15 the next level up).

• Warning: exit by ~20 sessions; don’t ride the last two weeks of theta.

Put credit spread $11.5/10.5 (2026-09-18)

• Legs: SELL 1x $11.5P / BUY 1x $10.5P, 2026-09-18

• Est. credit $45/contract; max loss $55; max gain $45; breakeven $11.05; estimated chance of profit 0.57; prob-touch 0.94

• Why: same floor, hard-capped risk — max loss $55 vs $45 collected.

• Warning: runs through earnings (2026-08-11) — size for the gap or close before. Exit at 50% of credit or 21 days to expiry.

Risk reversal — sell 2x $11.5P (2026-09-18) / own $18C (2026-12-18)

• Legs: SELL 2x $11.5P 2026-09-18, BUY 1x $18C 2026-12-18

• Est. net credit $55/contract; max loss $2,245; max gain uncapped; breakeven $11.50; estimated chance of profit 0.53

• Why: date-skewed — the short 49-day puts decay fast at their floor while you own the SAME $18 2026-12-18 call line institutions bought, for ~$55 net credit; if the puts expire worthless, roll and sell again.

• Warnings: assignment on 2x puts below $11.5 — only size what you’d happily own there; margin account required. Close short puts at 80% capture, ride the calls while the floor holds.

Exit discipline across all three: sell into the first +5-8% move, out by ~20 sessions. Advanced hands can look at the bench — a $11.5 cash-secured put or the aggressive $25 calls (the tape’s most-bought line at $3,596K premium) — for the two tails of this trade.

This is what a weekly setup post will look like but will all be auto-generated within the flow app.

I’m really spending all of my limited time making sure this is perfect and useful (forward testing the plays the app has produced so far) - the goal is to identify swing trades based on my indicators that are confirmed in the options market. The app will have all flow as well in the flow tape section so will be able to see all flow in the database but really trying to curate it as much as possible, as I know a lot of people would love to have solid setups that they don’t need to actively monitor each day.

1 New Buy Orders at the Open for Monday (7/13/26), will get us to 20 max positions after the sell of BBW at the close today.

BUY at the 2026-07-13 OPEN — MOO orders (1) · ~5.0% ($505) each

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4 New Buy Orders at the Open for tomorrow (7/9/26), will get us to 19 position allocation after the 3 sells today at close (CBOE/SM/AKAM):

BUY at the 2026-07-09 OPEN — MOO orders (4) · ~5.0% ($507) each

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1 New Buy Order at the Open for tomorrow (7/8/26), will get us to 19 position allocation after the 2 sells today at close (MORN / PNRG):

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1 New Buy Order at the Open today (7/7/26):

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8 New Buy Orders at the Open today (7/6/26), will get us to our 20 position max allocation:

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A little background on me for those who don’t know — I’m a Supply Chain executive by trade, so I tend to keep a close pulse on any market I’m personally involved in (ingredients, freight, warehousing, etc). I also tend to do business with really good companies and spend a lot of time analyzing the partners I decide to work with.

PTRN is one of those companies, which is why I invested in them on their IPO day. Samsara is another one where I’ve personally seen their new tech and it’s pretty remarkable, and solves a real issue that has lived within supply chain’s and that is visibility, at an affordable cost.

The Tracking Label

Here’s the product: a paper-thin, adhesive-backed, single-use Bluetooth label with a 45-day battery. No lithium, no hazmat, which means it’s cleared for air, ground, and rail, and you throw it away when the shipment lands. Slap it on a box or a pallet, activate it with one scan of the BOL in their app, done.

The clever part isn’t the label. It’s the network behind it. The label itself has no cellular connection. Instead, it gets picked up by the Samsara Network: millions of Samsara-connected devices already out in the world (trucks, trailers, warehouse scanners, phones) covering 99% of major U.S. roads. Every Samsara-equipped vehicle that drives past your shipment becomes a listening post. If you’ve used an Apple AirTag, it’s the same playbook. Apple’s Find My network works because there are a billion iPhones out there. Samsara spent a decade building the freight equivalent, and the Tracking Label is how they monetize it.

The problem this solves is one anyone in supply chain knows intimately: once freight leaves your dock on an LTL or truckload carrier, it goes dark. You get two data points, picked up and delivered, and everything in between is a prayer and a check-call. Meanwhile cargo theft is running roughly $35 billion a year in the U.S., up 60% year over year. The existing answers all have a fatal flaw. Cellular trackers are too expensive to put on everything, RFID only works where someone installed readers, and carrier tracking data is milestone-based garbage. A disposable label that rides a pre-built network kills all three problems at once.

Valuation and upside

IOT trades around $36 with a ~$21B market cap, against FY2027 revenue guidance of roughly $2.0B. Call it ~10x forward sales. Last quarter they beat on both lines: revenue of $478.8M, up 30.5% YoY, with EPS of $0.17 vs. $0.13 expected. Gross margins run in the mid-70s and they’re free-cash-flow positive. So you’re paying a premium software multiple, but for a rare profile: durable ~30% growth, sticky multi-year contracts (~98% of revenue is recurring subscription), and a physical installed base competitors can’t replicate with code.

My simple framework: if they compound revenue at 25% for three years, that’s roughly $3.9 to $4B in revenue by FY2030. Hold the multiple at 10x and you’re looking at a ~$40B company, about a double. Even in a de-rating scenario where the multiple compresses to 7x, growth alone gets you to ~$27B, or ~35% upside. The bear case is deceleration below 20% plus multiple compression, which is real risk at this valuation. The stock’s 52-week range is $23 to $47, so the market has already priced both stories in the past year.

What the model doesn’t capture yet is the Tracking Label itself. Samsara’s core business sells subscriptions on durable hardware. The label is a consumable. Every shipment burns one. If this lands even modestly across their existing base of freight customers, it’s a recurring revenue stream layered on top of the subscription business, sold into accounts they already own. That optionality is what got me to size the position now rather than wait.

From a pure technical standpoint, we see it backfilled and held well against IPO highs, and is now climbing higher. This looks like a ~3 year consolidation getting ready to push higher in my opinion:

The bottleneck Samsara solves, at a fraction of the cost

The shipment visibility market has been “solved” three times, badly. Cellular GPS trackers work but cost real money per unit, need charging, and require reverse logistics to get the device back. So companies only tag their most critical freight and fly blind on the rest. RFID is cheap per tag but useless without reader infrastructure at every chokepoint, which is why adoption stalled. And the software visibility platforms are only as good as the carrier data feeding them: milestone pings, not location.

The industry’s actual constraint was never the sensor, it was the network. Per 451 Research, over half the market absorbs higher hardware costs on GPS/cellular just to guarantee coverage, while cheaper Bluetooth alternatives sat at ~39% adoption because the infrastructure was fragmented. Samsara didn’t have to build that infrastructure for this product. It was a byproduct of a decade of selling telematics. That’s the moat: a competitor can copy the label in a quarter; they can’t copy the millions of listening devices already on the road.

Samsara hasn't published list pricing, but their CEO has said labels will run in the single-digit dollars depending on volume. For context, a cellular tracker is a $100+ device that needs charging, a return trip, and its own data plan. Even generously assuming you reuse one across dozens of shipments, you're still managing a fleet of hardware. At a few bucks a label, the math flips: you stop asking "which shipments are worth tracking" and start asking "why wouldn't I tag everything over $X in value." That reframing is the whole product.

Trade Structures to Consider outside of just long commons:

1. Grabbed shares today for long term portfolio but here are a few other considerations:

   1. Put ratio spread (1x2):

      1. Buy 1x Jan '27 $32 put, sell 2x $28 puts, structured for a net credit. Three outcomes: stock stays above $32 → keep the credit; stock lands between $28-32 at expiry → the long put pays off on top of the credit (max profit at $28); stock craters through $28 → you're net short one put and get assigned around an effective basis of roughly $24-25 (strike minus spread value minus credit). It's the most "paid to buy the dip" structure of the group, but it's also the most path-sensitive and the ugliest mark-to-market in a fast selloff since the naked short put gamma bites hardest exactly when the tape is worst.

   2. Risk reversal (sell put + buy call) - probably the best fit for my actual view

      1. Sell the Jan '27 ~$28-30 put, use the premium to finance the Jan '27 ~$40-42 call. Can branch this out to 2028 expiry if the spreads make sense (may be a bit wide). Goal being to get near zero cost. This is the "I'm bullish and willing to get long lower" trade: stock rips, our call captures it; stock dumps, you're assigned at an effective basis in the high-$20s, which per our own model is where the risk/reward gets silly.

Cheers!

DGP ~$134.20 → 3 sh
GLOB ~$30.01 → 13 sh
OLN ~$21.71 → 18 sh
CRCL ~$73.55 → 5 sh
KRMN ~$46.36 → 8 sh
EPAM ~$80.74 → 5 sh
CSGP ~$30.25 → 13 sh
ZG ~$31.18 → 12 sh

Book & P&L · $10,000 start

Equity $10,143
Leverage 0.76× · gross 46%
12/20 open · YTD +1.4% ($+143) · vs SPY -0.5%

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Strategy Overview

1. Summary

A fully systematic, long-only mean-reversion strategy for liquid US equities. It buys quality, liquid names when they become statistically oversold and begin to turn back up, holds a diversified book, and exits each position once the move reverts or a fixed time limit is reached. Everything is 100% rules-based — no discretion, no news, no narratives, no forecasting. The edge is a repeatable statistical pattern harvested broadly across hundreds of names, not a handful of high-conviction bets.

2. The edge (high level)

Markets overshoot to the downside short-term and tend to snap back. The strategy systematically identifies names that have been pushed statistically stretched below their recent trend and are showing the first signs of turning, takes a position, and harvests the reversion. It is a breadth strategy: each individual trade carries a small, positive expectancy; run across many concurrent positions with fast turnover, the law of large numbers compounds that thin edge into the return stream. It is deliberately not a momentum or stock-picking strategy.

3. Universe & selection

Broad, liquid US equity universe (~1,000 names) filtered purely on characteristics — liquidity, price level, and sufficient daily range. Names too illiquid, too cheap, or too quiet to trade cleanly are screened out.

• Sector-agnostic. Signals fire wherever names get oversold; there is no sector tilt or rotation.

• No performance-based selection. The universe is never narrowed to “names that did well.” This was validated the hard way — walk-forward testing showed that picking the historically best names hurts this strategy (it overfits and collapses out-of-sample). The universe is defined by characteristics only.

4. Portfolio construction

• Diversified and equal-weight — every position is sized to the same target weight; no single name dominates.

• ~20 concurrent positions max, capped per name, so idiosyncratic blowups are contained (a single name is a small fraction of the book).

• Fast turnover — average holding period is short (positions exit quickly when the bounce works), so capital recycles many times a year and compounds the per-trade edge.

• The book scales into developing setups to improve the average entry.

5. Risk management

Three layers, deliberately no per-trade price stops (testing showed tight stops chop winners and a wide “catastrophe” stop actually deepened drawdowns by clustering losses in crashes):

1. Per-trade time cap — a position that hasn’t reverted within a set window is closed, so non-reverters can’t bleed indefinitely.

2. Portfolio diversification — ~20 uncorrelated-ish positions average out single-name noise; sizing bounds any one disaster.

3. Volatility-targeting overlay — total book exposure is scaled to hold risk near a steady target, using modest margin leverage in calm markets and automatically de-risking when volatility spikes. Because large losses cluster in high-volatility regimes, the book is naturally smallest exactly when crashes hit — which roughly halved the worst historical drawdown while preserving the return.

6. Execution

• Enters at the open (market-on-open) and exits at the close (market-on-close), trading the deepest-liquidity auctions of the day — no after-hours.

• Liquid names only, so spreads are tight; all results are stated net of realistic transaction costs.

7. Risk profile

High-octane long-equity exposure: it co-moves with the market and does so with higher volatility and fatter tails. Its return distribution is many small wins plus occasional sharp losses, smoothed at the book level by diversification — except in crashes, when correlations spike and the diversification temporarily fails. That single failure mode (fast, broad selloffs) is the entire risk story, and it’s what the volatility overlay is designed to manage.

8. Methodology & integrity

• Costs are mandatory — no gross/headline numbers; everything net of realistic slippage + commissions + margin costs.

• No look-ahead — signals act on completed data; entries fill the next open.

• Walk-forward validation for any selection claim — no in-sample-picked universes.

• Broad, not lottery-ticket, edge — the top 1% of winners account for only ~16% of gross profit, so no single moonshot carries the record.

9. Current status

The strategy is running as a live forward-test — daily buy/sell signals and a running equity curve published in real time, building a genuinely out-of-sample track record from here forward.

Full Tear Sheet + Backtest Results + Discord Link

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The screen flagged 97 setups across the liquid US market this week. Below are the top 10 by setup quality.

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## 1. [SNEX] — BREAKOUT · score 64.9

- Up 86% over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **17%-deep** base; ADR **4.2%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $117.23 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $130.69.

---

## 2. [ATEX] — BREAKOUT · score 64.1

- Up **116%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **17%-deep** base; ADR **7.2%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $68.31 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $82.50.

---

## 3. [HTFL] — BREAKOUT · score 63.0

- Up **60%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **17%-deep** base; ADR **7.6%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $32.60 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $33.24.

---

## 4. [GRC] — BREAKOUT · score 59.7

- Up **43%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **12%-deep** base; ADR **2.9%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $82.10 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $84.59.

---

## 5. [ATI] — BREAKOUT · score 58.3

- Up **36%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **13%-deep** base; ADR **4.1%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $183.30 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $198.48.

---

## 6. [CARE] — BREAKOUT · score 57.1

- Up **49%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **10%-deep** base; ADR **2.9%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $29.43 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $29.88.

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## 7. [AIRS] — COILING · score 75.3

- Up **145%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **18%-deep** base; ADR **8.4%**.
- Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$5.79**.
- Last close: $5.35.

---

## 8. [PACK] — COILING · score 75.1

- Up **125%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **11%-deep** base; ADR **5.1%**.
- Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$7.15**.
- Last close: $7.30.

---

## 9. [VSTS] — COILING · score 73.6

- Up **75%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **9%-deep** base; ADR **4.4%**.
- Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$13.52**.
- Last close: $13.19.

---

## 10. [KFRC] — COILING · score 72.4

- Up **94%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **14%-deep** base; ADR **3.9%**.
- Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$48.81**.
- Last close: $50.00.

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1. Symbols flagged by scanner by date (entry date)

2. Curated options flow tracking by ticker (are any of these names adding to the bull case with options flow? and if so, what are the trades?)

3. Performance tracking from date of entry to recommended exit (working on some exit logic)

4. Tying everything together with a simple site buildout where database can be explored by you guys.

5. As it gets smarter over time, will look to do a weekly narrowed write up with 2-3 best trades for the week identified by the system

Looking at the picks it gave us on 6/10, here is the performance as of Friday (not including premkt gains today):

This is obviously a tiny sample size so far but as this runs for quite some time, I want it to prove it’s robust in finding leaders and relative strength no matter what the broader market is doing — these are names I wouldn’t normally ever look to trade.

Combining the logic & parameters I’ve built for the scanner with options flow I think will give us a nice nice edge for trade setups.

Make sure to subscribe as after I release the setups for this week, I will be paywalling moving forward.

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If you have any ideas/feedback/etc, feel free to post in the chat. Open to hearing what you guys would like to see with this build out!

The screen flagged 88 setups across the liquid US market this week. Below are the top 10 by setup quality.

---

## 1. [VECO] — BREAKOUT · score 66.8

• Up **113%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **16%-deep** base; ADR **6.9%**.

• Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $65 pivot on rising volume.

• Last close: $67.19.

---

## 2. [GEO] — BREAKOUT · score 64.6

• Up **92%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **17%-deep** base; ADR **3.7%**.

• Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $24 pivot on rising volume.

• Last close: $27.03

---

## 3. [MRX] — BREAKOUT · score 64.1

• Up **68%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **16%-deep** base; ADR **4.6%**.

• Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $59 pivot on rising volume.

• Last close: $60.49.

---

## 4. [INN] — BREAKOUT · score 59.6

• Up **54%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **8%-deep** base; ADR **3.2%**.

• Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $6 pivot on rising volume.

• Last close: $6.20.

---

## 5. [MATX] — BREAKOUT · score 57.6

• Up **24%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **7%-deep** base; ADR **3.1%**.

• Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $190 pivot on rising volume.

• Last close: $194.23.

---

## 6. [VNO] — BREAKOUT · score 55.6

• Up **45%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **11%-deep** base; ADR **3.2%**.

• Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $37 pivot on rising volume.

• Last close: $38.45.

---

## 7. [PACK] — COILING · score 75.7

• Up **81%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **8%-deep** base; ADR **4.9%**.

• Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$7.16**.

• Last close: $6.94.

---

## 8. [LGN] — COILING · score 74.5

• Up **67%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **12%-deep** base; ADR **6.8%**.

• Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$90.35**.

• Last close: $85.58.

---

## 9. [POWL] — COILING · score 71.4

• Up **61%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **15%-deep** base; ADR **6.8%**.

• Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$309.75**.

• Last close: $283.51.

---

## 10. [KFRC] — COILING · score 71.0

• Up **84%** over the last three months — already a leader.

• Consolidating in a **15%-deep** base; ADR **4.0%**.

• Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$48.81**.

• Last close: $47.89.

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3-Sleeve:

I made a note in chat but I’ve been working on a systematic portfolio with 3 different strategies blended into it:

• sleeve 1 is a momentum strategy - buy the strongest-trending names, rebalance quarterly.

• sleeve 2 is a mean-reversion strategy - buy short-term oversold dips in uptrends. can rebalance daily

• sleeve 3 is a multi-asset trend strategy - long/short across asset classes, pretty classic time-series momentum / CTA stuff, can rebalance daily

The goal isn’t max return in good years, it’s never having a year bad enough that you abandon ship. Backtests are promising, but there is certainly survivorship bias built into it. So the plan for this is to spin off a small dedicated $10K portfolio to live test starting at the end of this quarter when the system decides what to buy for the momentum strat. It may seem daunting as the portfolio can have 20+ positions but I’ll post any positioning updates + weightings when I get alerted of them.

Breakout Screener & Setup List

Now this is moreso for ideation and setups to watch without having to manually comb thru 100’s of tickers. It scans the entire liquid US market every morning for curated breakout setups: stocks that have already made a big move and are now coiling in a tight base above their key moving averages. Ranks them by setup quality and drops a watchlist each morning - names breaking out that day plus ones tightening up to watch. The bot finds the setups then based on charts/indicators/options flow etc, can use discretion to decide if there is a trade there.

I’ve got the workflow built to draft charts and setups that I can very easily do a morning post each day. More to come on both of these but wanted to let you guys know what I’ve been working on!

I will keep this all free for a little bit but at some point will make posts for subscribers-only to cover time & data costs.

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Cheers!

-gtd

So I decided to just pull up the chart and my oh my, what a base… after getting clobbered, it’s been building a base for 3 years and to me looks very much like accumulation.

Anyway, I’ll be buying commons in my long term portfolio tomorrow and will explore some leap calls and see what that pricing is like. This is one I wanna get long and forget about as I can very much see price doubling from here.

Cheers!

Should be no surprise the early weakness given the holiday pump and traders returning to desks, but bears have some work to do if they want to get back in control here.

ES:

Last week I noted in the chat the 6670-6680 zone to use as a pivot and we got a test on Tuesday and never looked back, heading all the way up to our old 6860 level, and have sold off from there:

Plan for this week:

6800-6805 key zone, below opens a quick flush down to 6760 where bulls must hold or else we can see a sweep of 6740 and bears can take control again. Use the levels on the chart and watch the tape for confirmation.

If bulls want to keep the party going, they will need to get above 6860, opens 6900 & 6920 on the upside, new ATHs above there.

NQ:

Traded near our 25580 level in globex last night and sold from there back below key 25355 level. Levels are the same as they have been, use them to play off of:

Plan for the week:

Key pivot is 25180-25195 area: below opens up a quick drop down to 24957, which is a must hold for bulls or else we revisit our old friend 24730.50.

For upside, bulls need to take out 25580 which opens a visit to 25730-25790 zone, can trade 26000 above there.

It’s been a good year, and if you’ve had a good year, I’d recommend not trying to be a hero this last month. I tend to size way down in December and only take trades when good setups appear - I’ve done it in the past where I get crazy in December and give back a chunk of gains for literally no reason at all. It’s wind down time for me and time to relax a bit before what I’m expecting to be a very volatile Q1 again.

I’ll probably spend some time this month doing some writeups on my favorite swing trade setups to trade + intraday strategies (ie the 10min opening range) and posts like that. Obviously if I see good setups, I’ll post them but not looking to initiate anything new at the moment.

One thing to note, on longer timeframe the regime is still red (sell rips), until that confirms back to green, I’m happy to sit back and not chase this move:

Cheers!

Last week was interesting to say the least, I think we did a pretty good job of exiting our swing NQ longs from 24730 on 11/7 near the fade zone (25728-25791), my only regret is not tossing on a few small shorts up there. I felt my bias shifting super bullish which is why I didn’t, and from a discipline standpoint, I’m happy that I at least respected the area enough to not get greedy on the long side. Trying to do a better job of not wanting to catch every move and be more selective in setups.

Gold was looking great and then wham, massive kick in the nuts. Always easy to say in hindsight I should have cut half the position when I tweeted it as an option but I still believe in the setup and can dive in more on that below.

Levels to Watch for the week:

NQ:

If you haven’t already, just mark all of my NQ levels on your chart as these won’t change week over week unless we see a break either up or down from this large range we’ve been in.

Major pivot for me this week is our old 25355 level which we saw reject in globex pretty hard. Above there, bulls look in the clear for a push to 25580 / key zone 25728-25791. Sellers remain in control for now while price is below 355.

Additional levels to watch for intraday trades:

• Prior week close: 25147.50

• Sunday Globex open: 25142.25

Can use both of these as intraday pivots to play off of.

ES:

A lot of our old levels over the past few weeks are still valid and active as we’re in this large range. Major pivot where bulls can take control is the 6800-6805 area that rejected in globex.

Bulls must hold 6760 else we spill over to 6740, 6707, and revisit of 6670 below there.

Above 6800-6805, and we can see a large squeeze higher to ~6840 / 6860 / 6900 if bulls are able to reclaim and hold.

GC (Gold):

Nastie nastie sell off on Friday and bulls have some work to do. The setup still looks fine to me as long as we hold 4050. Any sustained push below that reopens a visit of 4000 area so its a must must must hold. Pretty disgusting way of backtesting the range breakout but as long as 4050 holds, that’s all that was imo

Hold 4050 and we can work our way back up to test 4121-4151 zone, reclaim and we look good to push higher again.

Trade Setups:

This is a big week with NVDA earnings which will ultimately decide the route the market takes. I do not like initiating swing positions ahead of major market events so will be a relatively quiet week for me on this front.

Regarding the 11/21 TSLA calls, above $410 and we can backtest the 420-423 area where i’d look to exit. I only grabbed 2 of the calls so will let this one ride and see how it plays out.

One setup I’m keeping a close eye on is CRWV: if this thing keeps dropping, I’m going to look to try some shares long near $60-$62 area, I’ve been waiting for this area to trade and looks like there’s a chance we can get there

For crypto, ETH looks the best out of the bunch right now, but I’m largely disinterested in trading it. AVWAP from Dec 2024 highs is at 3074 and decent reaction off that area so far with additional support below at 3030-2950 so I don’t think longs are awful here. Working on another buy signal here on the daily as well (last one we failed and saw the puke lower):

As always, will be active in the Substack chat + twitter with any major updates but that’s all for now!

Cheers,

-gtd

What an exciting Friday that was, our old core pivot on NQ did it’s job again at 730.50 and we’re now trading 600+ points higher! However, it’s not the time to get complacent as the market now gapped into some very key areas that bulls will have to take out quickly to gain control. Let’s dive in:

ES:

Market traded into our old 6670 level from a few weeks back and once the swing buy signals triggered, that’s all she wrote! Now we note market gapping into a very critical area:

• 21ema on the daily right at 6796, no coincidence this is also near very key 6800 level as well, I expect to see heavy sellers show up here and bulls will need to press to get a cover squeeze higher.

• Note the 6785 level as well at the huge volume node on the profile

Plan for me:

• Above 6785 can test into 6800. Any pushes above 6800 will trigger a large squeeze higher into 6855-6860 area so be cautious if trying to short there / keep stops tight

• Below 6785 opens tests down to 6759-6746, if bulls lose either of those levels, we risk a revisit of the friday lows so be extremely cautious below there.

NQ:

Pretty straightforward levels here on the chart and no real changes.

• Hold above 25355 and we can push into 25580

• Reject this zone again and we open revisit of 25179 and 24957 below.

• I expect sellers to put up an effort here

GC:

21ema at 4019 here, once we close above on the daily I expect for the move to begin higher. Thing is getting real coiled imo and its ripe for another 4060 test

No changes, hold the longs!

EQT:

Flagged EQT leaps as a play last week, we got the breakout and this thing looks primed to rip higher, I think this will be a big longer term swing winner

For swing trade ideas, I’ll probably do a write up later this week as the dust settles from this gap higher + NVDA earnings. Don’t really want to enter anything until then.

As always, will keep updated on twitter + chat on SubStack and let’s have another great week!

Cheers,

-gtd

Gold:

As you are all well aware, my main focus / trade for the coming months is gold as I believe the r/r here is insanely good as long as we can stomach the volatility. The orderflow so far has confirmed our 3930-3960 zone to be valid and thus, I’ll continue to buy dips into it, fully knowing that this trade will not be a straight line higher.

On Friday, we rejected the 21ema which is to be expected on first test from below. A few more days of chop between here, and we’ll start to see the moving avg flatten out which will be a good signal it’s ready to move higher.

Note the 4059 level and how price continues to react against the prior signals on the chart, will be a critical area to clear for bulls and we’ll see a violent move to the upside when we do.

For me my plan on this trade is simple, continue buying March $400c on GLD on dips into 3960-3930, monitor the orderflow in this area to make sure the strong buying is still present, and then simply sit back and wait.

Looking at the indices this week and the key levels for them:

ES:

While price remains below 6915, I hold a sell bias targeting:

• 6860, key level from last week

• Below there, opens large flush down to 6806 which is what I was hoping for last week, it remains an open target that need to be visited, and I would look to be a buyer.

• If bulls can’t hold there, opens up a visit to 6746.

Above 6915, pretty straightforward long targeting 6950, above there it’s highly likely we visit 7000.

NQ:

I’m short biased on NQ while below 26115-26132, targeting 25860. Below 25860 and we look for the following targets:

• 25791

• Lose that, opens large flush to 25337-25300

• Below there we revisit our key 25179 level

Above 26115-26132, straightforward longs to 26283 // 26400. Above 26400, likely we get a chance at trading 26700.

Trading Setups for this week:

1. TSLA

   

   Our December call spreads are in good shape and mainly highlighting this chart because it looks poised to continue higher in a big way, it will be on my radar for weekly options if the broader market shows strength. Our key levels 441/423 have been great and will look to be a buyer on any dips to 441.
   
   

2. PTRN

   

   This may be a name that many of you have never heard of, and I’m bucketing this into a longterm buy. Pattern Group is becoming a giant in the warehousing/fulfillment space, catered toward Amazon FBA. If you’ve never sold anything on FBA before, I’ll be the first to tell you that it is an absolute nightmare and they don’t make anything easy for your brand. This is where Pattern steps in.

   
   
   Pattern operates as a comprehensive e-commerce enablement partner, specializing in marketplace management across major digital retail platforms including Amazon, Walmart, Target, and other key online marketplaces. The company provides end-to-end services that span the entire e-commerce value chain.
   
   

   Their core service offerings include:
   
   

   Marketplace Operations: Pattern handles the full operational stack - inventory forecasting and management, order fulfillment, pricing optimization, and multi-channel synchronization. They essentially become the outsourced e-commerce department for brands that want marketplace presence without building internal infrastructure.
   
   

   Performance Marketing: They manage paid advertising campaigns, search optimization, and content strategy specifically tailored to each marketplace’s algorithm. This includes Amazon PPC management, sponsored product campaigns, and organic ranking optimization through strategic keyword placement and listing enhancement.
   
   

   Brand Control & Protection: Pattern actively monitors and enforces MAP (Minimum Advertised Price) policies, fights counterfeit listings, and manages unauthorized seller issues - critical for maintaining brand equity in marketplaces notorious for these problems.
   
   

   Now, I know for a fact that Amazon recently made some big changes that they will no longer do prep services for brands, this is a large opportunity for pattern to absorb additional business, and contribute to their strong growth (~40% YoY)

   
   
   I like just buying some shares on this name and holding for the longterm. Ecom/FBA will only continue to grow, and they’re positioning themselves as a major player in the space.
   
   

3. ASTS

   

   ASTS had a major pullback after hitting $100 back to the 21ema, earnings are on 11/10 so I’d be looking at playing some weekly $90c to play a run up into earnings, contingent on price staying above the 21ema.

   
   That’s all for now, will send any updates/setups/etc on twitter throughout the week. have a good one!

   
   
   -gtd
   

First, a few quick chart updates from last week’s trade ideas:

SNOW:

I’m going to be trimming 75% of the Nov $260c today into this gap up and leave runners on. Noted as long as we remained above the 21ema this setup looked explosive and we got a great move higher and will be a solid win

META:

Although was a weekly call play, it played out extremely well on Monday with the large move higher off the buy setup, given earnings this week and another gap up today, wouldn’t chase at this point

TSLA:

TSLA was a whirlwind with the gap down from ER, but strong buyers showed up to keep it above key 423 level which remains my pivot, as long as we’re above I like staying long the Dec call spreads.

Our plan on ES worked quite well, 6705 key pivot held and we ended up banking a nice win on longs from there - I’ll be selling the runner SPY 10/31 $669 calls today at open for a really nice win there as well.

Looking ahead to this week’s levels and setups:

I tweeted out to swing longs when we got the buy signal and can see how it played out. Also last night I tweeted to fade this move up, I still think we will fade and I wouldn’t chase this long:

Key pivot this week for me is 6806 which if you remember was an upside target from last week’s plan, and 6840 was final target which capped the upside on Friday. I think we see this fade to 6840 and ultimately breaks lower to test out that 6806 pivot. I will be wrong on a sustained move above 6900. Pretty solid risk reward with a defined stop out on this.

If it plays out and buyers fail to hold 6806, we open up a revisit of 6760-6750 area - i’ll be sure to update on twitter throughout the week.

NQ:

NQ printed a risk off signal completing the auction from the swing long buy signals that marked the lows last week, can take stabs short on this as well as long as no sustained moves above 25900.

GC:

I am still wildly bullish gold and am going to keep buying dips for a swing into Q1. I currently have a position in the March $400 calls on GLD, fully open to the possibility that this still goes lower to test 3970-3930 zone. As long as no daily closes below this zone, I view dips as gifts to buy, and I still think gold will trade $5000 in Q1 2026.

I do not have any trade setups at this moment for the week. I am using this strength to exit swing longs and given I mainly like to play the long-side on single names, I will be patient and see if we get the move lower I am expecting and then assess from there.

It’s also a massive week of earnings and FOMC, so I am happy to be sidelined on swings and just use this week to trade intraday volatility:

I’ll be active on twitter and if any good setups/signals appear, will be sure to call them out in real time there.

Cheers!

-gtd