Last week was a good week, we banked the profit on our GXO call spreads (too early as it ripped higher on earnings, but I’m still scarred from INTC earnings so took profit before lol) and the great short ES trade on Friday. UAL/MCD/FSLR trades all bangers.

As we get closer to year end, I really try to make it a point to only take really really good setups and avoid overtrading. If i can get 1 futures trade a week like the one Friday, I’m happy. Or 1 good options setup a week, this part of the year is protecting any gains you’ve made and not ending the year in a bad note. I know a few full time traders who take Nov/Dec off every year - this is their time to slow the brakes and get some rest before the new year.

So my focus from now until year end are only very high quality setups, base hits (will never let a winner turn negative), and using this time to really focus on building out the flow app. I have a lot of different ideas I’m testing and new features I’m working on which are taking time, but truly think you guys will be blown away when v2 is released. Spending a lot of time and investing into the app because it does have an edge but there are a lot of things I can do to make it better and a better experience for you guys. time to grind!

Indices

ES:

We see a few buy signals fired on ES which are aiding in a bottom for now. Market is running up against the key bias area for the week (7498-7515) which I expect to initially reject, but bulls get thru and target 7571 area where there are trapped buyers. high probability IMO that 7571 area rejects but if not, can see we have the ability to go back to our 7660 magnet level from the past few weeks.

On the downside, 7420 as i noted last week continues to show some interest from bulls and they have defended - below there we can visit the low of the buy signal and ultimately can go down to my 7296 target. Anything below there is where I turn on a buy program for my longterm ETF exposure.

NQ:

lots of buy signals have limited drops and we’re seeing a push back above 27449 level today, upside levels havent changed and I need to spend some time gathering levels on the downside, will have updated levels this week on NQ in the chat for you guys, need to run everything

Options Trade Ideas:

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This continues to be a challenging market — finding trades hasn’t been a problem but with the way price action has been, you have to be quick to take profits. And then when you respect that, you end up feeling like a giant weenie when the trade plays out (*cough cough SPCX puts from last week cough cough*). It’s just very hard to swing stuff with this chop so for the time being, expect quick base hit trades when i take them until we can see some sort of trend develop.

The good news for bulls though, I noted in the discord that 7660 was a major level on ES and so far on multiple tests (even right now as I’m writing this in globex), it’s holding. Will be critical for bulls to not allow a close below, or else I can see the potential for further downside. Did see some size buyers appearing on ES & NQ near Fridays lows so use those prices as a key bias area.

Jumping into this week’s levels on the indices:

Indices

ES:

As said above 7660 is make or break, below you can see opens up a decent size drop down to 7605 / 7582 — so bulls have to step up here.

Assuming they hold the line, must push above 7690 which can open up a strong move back to last week’s auction levels (7736 // 7779 // 7820 (remains an open target for me))

NQ:

On NQ, 29195-29242 yellow zone has been key support for awhile now, bulls must stay above here else we can risk a sizable drop down to 28615 / 28034. We did print a 30min buy signal and noted the size buyers near Friday RTH open so will be key area here to hold.

A reclaim of the 195-242 zone can see us head back higher toward the levels on the chart (29578 // 30279)

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Options Trade Ideas:

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Deeply sorry for not posting a digest last week — life has been hectic and just when it seems it’s getting back to normal-ish, something else pops up. The good news is we were able to get a few appointments scheduled with oncologists for my wife this week, so we will hopefully get some next steps and a gameplan for her.

In other news, as I mentioned in the discord, I am bringing on my good friend to help collaborate on the future of the flow app + buildout for v2. With his background on wall street and experience with deploying complex algorithms, I think we’re going to be able to get the app from good to great. Excited to work with him on this and continue building it out together!

Let’s dive in for the week ahead:

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ARKG - Published 9/24/2026
Level · $55.00 ceiling

The level

$5.9M of puts bought and calls sold into the $55.00 ceiling, $901K of calls sold there, seller still in (OI 5,155). This is an institutional level from `Levels`, not a chart line: it is where the money went down, and it is drawn only while the open interest says the position is still on. This strike is still being built — the tape has been back at it on more than one session this month.

The approach

the stock closed at $53.53, 2.7% below the level and coming toward it. A 4-8 week thesis: the read is that this name trades lower while the commitment at this level is still open.

The flow

83% of the last 5 sessions’ sided premium in this name agrees with the level, 9 of those orders at grade A. That is 3.482x this name’s own normal — $5.9M net across 5 sessions, against $337K on a median session of its own over the prior 60.

Invalidation

the read breaks on a daily close above $55.88. It is a level to manage against, not a hard stop.

Moving forward, I’m going to try and keep this weekly post on a Sunday night cadence but we had quite literally the weekend from hell as we’re calling it. We made the long drive back to have the rest of our family meet our daughter — they informed us after we got into town that half of them are sick and the other half have been in contact with …

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I’m going to keep the price static for a day or two but will be raising it — so if you’re thinking of joining I’d do so to lock in the current rates for life!

Before the walkthrough, a bit on why this exists.

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Why I built it

The last eight weeks I was on paternity leave, and I spent most of the few quiet hours I had building, testing, and tearing this thing apart. Becoming a dad made something obvious fast: I’m not going to be glued to screens all day anymore. So the question I kept asking was, how do I get what I actually need to make a good trade without spending hours digging through flow and charts? GTD Flow is the answer I came up with.

The goal was simple on the surface and heavy underneath. Everything you need on a normal day is on one screen. If you want to dig, the Database has the full history with filters. Under the hood it’s a lot: the app reads the entire options tape every session from raw OPRA data, clusters fills into orders, figures out which side each trade was on, filters out the arb and stock-tied junk that makes most flow feeds noisy, and grades what’s left. That part took far longer than I expected and was much harder than I thought going in. But for a V1, I’m proud of where it landed! Would have been much easier if CBOE Trade Alert didn’t discontinue lol.

What’s in it

Today is the landing page. Five statements at the top telling you what mattered this session in plain English, then the day’s institutional orders in four buckets: Calls Bought, Puts Bought, Puts Sold, and Spreads. Ranked on how unusual the trade is for that name, not on raw dollars. A $500K order in a stock that never trades options matters; the same order in NVDA is a drop in the bucket.

Setups tab is the core of it. My indicator (the green and red dots you’ve seen on my charts) runs against every stock in the market. When the buy signal fires on a name and institutional options flow agrees, it gets ranked and posted as a setup with an entry zone, the level where the idea is wrong, and two or three ways to play it with options, max loss shown on every one. Some weeks there are five. Some weeks there are none, and the page says why. Alongside the signal setups, there are two newer families — Flow (names the tape is relentless on, no signal required) and Level (heavy flow into a price institutions have committed to). Those are building their record in public; the badges tell you which is which.

Levels is the page I thought was pretty cool to build out. Search any ticker and you get a chart with three lines: a floor where institutions sold puts (they committed to buy there), a target where they bought calls, and a ceiling where they sold calls. The lines fade when the position closes, and appear when the position was opened, so what you see is live.

Database is search. Any ticker, every open institutional position, back to when it was put on. Click a row for the receipts.

Radar is discovery: names seeing unusual flow today versus their own normal + a trend section for running 10 sessions:

Record is every setup ever published, scored to resolution, wins and losses both. It’s public. That’s the whole point of it — every setup gets tracked from the day it posts, so the track record builds in real time and you can check it instead of taking my word. It will measure from when a setup was posted, how much drawdown was taken prior to max runup on a name and how many days it took to play out. We consider a trade a win if the stock hits +10% from entry prior to the invalidation level.

How I use it

Morning, before the open: Today, then Setups. Two minutes. If something new posted overnight, I read the card and decide whether it’s for me.

Midday, if I have a minute: Today refreshes during the session, so I glance at what’s printing.

Evening: this is when I actually think. Database on anything I’m in or watching. Levels on names I’m considering. Radar to see what got loud in names I’d never have searched. Record to see how the open setups are doing.

That’s it. The flow on the app updates intraday in real time but nothing here needs you to react in real time. The thesis windows are weeks, not minutes.

What to expect going forward

• Weekly Substack post with the setups I find interesting, plus anything I enter myself. Entries and exits go in the Discord and Substack chat as they happen, along with updates on my open book.

• Discord for intraday commentary and questions. I’m in there and thats best place to reach me if needed.

• The app keeps getting better. This is a V1. I’ll be building new features, fixing what you tell me is broken, and upgrading data as the member base grows. If something looks wrong, say so — if a trade’s mislabeled I want to know, and it becomes a rule.

This is an ongoing project and I’m going to lean on all of you for feedback and ideas. Thanks for being here for it and hope you enjoy!

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Baby gtd seems to be right in the middle of peak fussiness (6 weeks old) or having a developmental growth spurt, but she has been requiring constant contact and is not sleeping a ton. Suffice to say, I have this list of final updates to make to the flow app that I just have not had the time to tackle yet:

1. Alert workflow where you guys can flag tickers or specific trades and can get flow alerts (opening & closing positions) — this one has been a beast to tackle & I had to majorly upsize the server

2. Different views so we can see the top flagged tickers for that trading day/week and then a view for top expiration for symbols & what those trades are (which exp the most premium is going to, which way its leaning)

3. Filter adjustments for the setup trades based on the buy signals — a bit more tweaking needs done on this + some adjustments to the LLM logic

4. Write up on how to use the app & all of the features

Those are the 4 main ones I want to check off the list and I’d be cool with releasing the v1 to get your feedback/what else you;d like to see me build into it. I think it has a lot of cool features that nobody else is offering right now, but honestly this has been more challenging than I had envisioned (a fun challenge!) Will keep you all updated this week on progress.

Now, jumping into a few names/trades that caught my eye in the database..

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Below is the write up for this week’s trade setup flagged by the system + a few other tickers & flow that are catching my eye, let’s dive in!

Ticker: CDNS
Setup Grade: A
Signal fired 07/27/26 · Published 08/08/26

What’s happening

The flow

Put-sale-led and heavy: $26.6M bull premium against $6.4M bear, 80.7% dominance across 15 sessions. The anchor is July 17 — 5,002 contracts sold in the Sep $370 puts for $12.29M, struck deep in-the-money (selling intrinsic, an emphatic hold-and-rally bet), plus a floor-walked $250 put sale, $966K, deliberate size. July 21 stacked twenty-plus $340 Nov calls, ~$2.9M total. Crucially, the put-selling continued AFTER earnings (Aug 3-6, $370/$345/$330 lines), so this is real swing accumulation, not just event positioning — though note the July prints were all placed through the report.

The setup

Our buy signal fired 2026-07-27 with CDNS basing near $339. Barely extended since (spot $339). Tape is green, breadth 64%. Institutions have laid a defended floor stack from $300 up to $340.

Invalidation

Thesis is wrong on a daily close below $319.32 — on the short put, that’s your manage/roll trigger, not a panic exit.

Three ways to play it

You choose the structure. All prices are Black-Scholes estimates for sizing — check the chain.

1. Put credit spread $310/290 (defined-risk income)

Legs: SELL $310P 2026-09-18 / BUY $290P 2026-09-18. Est. entry -4.65, cost -$465/contract (credit), max loss $1,535, max gain $465, breakeven $305.35, estimated chance of profit 0.73. Why: same floor, hard-capped risk. Warning: credit is under 1/3 of the width — thin pay for the risk; demand better entry pricing or skip. Exit: close at 50% of credit or 21 days to expiry.

2. Call debit spread $340/370 (directional defined-risk)

Legs: BUY $340C 2026-11-20 / SELL $370C 2026-11-20. Est. entry 11.80, cost $1,180, max loss $1,180, max gain $1,820, breakeven $351.80, estimated chance of profit 0.41. Why: mirrors the institutional call strikes ($340 bought, $370 the next level up). Warning: exit by ~20 sessions; don’t ride the last two weeks of theta. Sell into the first +5-8% move.

3. Risk reversal: sell 3x $310P (2026-09-18) / own $380C (2026-11-20) (convexity)

Legs: SELL 3x $310P 2026-09-18 / BUY 1x $380C 2026-11-20. Est. entry -1.60, net -$160/contract (credit), max loss $92,840, max gain uncapped, breakeven $310.00, estimated chance of profit 0.70. Why: date-skewed — the short 41-day puts decay fast at their floor while you own the same $380 November call the institutions bought, for a ~$160 net credit. Warnings: assignment on 3x puts below $310 — only size what you’d happily own; margin account required. Exit: close short puts at 80% premium capture, ride the calls while the floor holds.

Advanced hands: the bench holds a cash-secured $310 put and the outright $340 November call ($2,933K of premium sat on that line) — more torque, more theta.

Full desk notes

The story

Institutions have been selling downside and buying upside in Cadence for a solid month, and the balance is lopsided: $26.6M in bullish premium against $6.4M bearish, an 80.7% dominance read across 15 bullish sessions. The tell is a wall of put sales at $370 stacked next to persistent call buying at $340 and above — smart money getting paid to underwrite the floor while owning the upside line. Our buy signal fired on 2026-07-27, and the name is sitting right on top of that level: spot $339.24 versus a signal close of $338.61, essentially unmoved, so you are not chasing an extended tape. Context, not thesis: this is a 67.5x trailing / 35.6x forward earnings compounder growing revenue 24.2% with 85.9% gross margins — priced for execution, and the flow is betting execution holds.

The company & the calendar

Cadence builds the AI-driven EDA software, hardware, and silicon IP that chip designers can’t ship without — a toll booth on the semiconductor design cycle. The numbers: 16.0x sales, 23.6% net margins, earnings up 125.4% year over year, and only 2.26% of float short, so this is not a squeeze setup — it’s institutional conviction. Twenty-six analysts rate it strong buy with a target range of $300 low / $403.67 mean / $470 high against a $339 spot; the street’s mean sits 19% above the tape, so coverage is ahead of price, not chasing it. Next earnings land 2026-10-26. The flow rhymes with the news: “Cadence Q2 Earnings Top Estimates on AI Demand, Backlog Hits $8.1B” (Zacks, 2026-07-30) sits mid-window, and the heaviest put-selling day preceded it — quiet accumulation into the print, then confirmation after.

The tape, day by day

The pattern is repetition, not a one-off. The $370 put line gets sold again and again from July 16 through August 6, and July 21 was eighteen distinct $340 November call buys in one session — one desk methodically building a position.

The receipts

The July 17 monster verified clean: $370P 2026-09-18, 2,739 contracts, $40.5M premium, open interest jumping 21,606 → 34,058 for a +12,452 delta — that is real new positioning, not a roll. The $250P August floor confirmed hard (54 → 3,727 OI). The $375C November buy confirmed (23 → 210), as did the $380P August sale (157 → 220). Not everything held: the July 22 $370P print (200 lots, $907K) showed OI slipping 11,262 → 10,563 — not confirmed — and the August 3 $370P (273 lots, $831K) also failed to add (10,640 → 10,382). The core thesis rests on the confirmed prints, and those are enormous.

The levels

The floor map, ranked by premium underwriting each strike:

• $370 — $17.66M sold. The defended line; institutions are paid to defend it.

• $250 — $965,925 (deep disaster floor).

• $345 — $565,992. $330 — $494,052. $300 — $482,201.

The invalidation is $319.32. Expect a normal shake-out of -6% to -8% off recent levels before any move — that is typical noise inside this floor structure, not thesis failure.

The clock

The September 18 short puts sit in front of the October 26 earnings and decay well before the print — that is the income clock. The November 20 calls carry the directional book through and past earnings, which is where the catalyst lives. Positioning is fresh; the thesis stays live while price holds above the floor and goes stale if the tape drifts sideways below $340 into late September with no follow-through.

A few additional tickers & flow I found that are interesting setups:

BWXT:

• Strong floor established at $160 with players attacking the upside $175 & $185 calls

UBER:

• Some size upside December calls hitting the $80 & $100 calls

• Large risk reversal on 8/6, selling the September deep ITM $90 puts to buy the ITM $67.5 calls — a massive bullish bet post-earnings.

I’m sure more flow and setups will show up this week so will be active with posting as they flow in on here & Discord. Invite below for those not in the discord yet!

Discord Invite Link -

• https://discord.gg/dPTp6qDzAp

Have a great rest of the weekend.

Signal fired 07/23/26 · Published 07/31/26

What’s happening

The flow

Eight bull sessions, 70% premium dominance ($4.4M bull vs $1.9M bear). Two floor prints anchor it: July 16, 7,100x — “BUY 7100x $25C 2026-12-18 @$1.7” and “BUY 7100x $18C 2026-12-18 @$3.09,” $2.19M walked to the floor; then July 21, another floor vertical — “SELL 5000x $25C 2027-01-15 @$1.45 / BUY 5000x $19C 2027-01-15 @$2.45,” $1.23M. Add a July 14 $12 put sale, $120K, fills kept rising. Stacks of $20 calls throughout. IV basically flat — this is accumulation, not a vol chase. Caveat: nearly all of it expires through earnings, so weight it as event-tied more than clean swing size.

The setup

Our buy signal fired 2026-07-23 with NN basing near $12.67 after a long grind lower. Spot’s back to $12.73; the institutional floor is $12, right where they sold puts. Mixed broad tape — half size, let entries come. Expect a -6 to -8% shake before it works.

Context: 444x sales, “the flow IS the thesis here”; 16% short float — squeeze fuel.

Invalidation

Thesis is wrong on a daily close below $11.27.

Full desk notes

The story

Institutions have spent July laddering up the call side of NextNav (NN), and the fingerprints are unusually clean: a $2.19M multileg on the $18/25 December line, a $1.23M call vertical the following week, and repeated $20-strike buying in between. Our buy signal fired on 2026-07-23 with the stock closing at $12.67; it now sits at $12.73, so the setup is essentially still at the trigger — the first leg has not run, and that means you can work orders patiently rather than chase. One piece of context you must hold in your head the whole time: NN is priced at 444x sales with revenue down 35% year-over-year, so this is a spectrum-optionality story where the flow is the thesis, not a valuation call. That framing matters for sizing more than direction.

The company & the calendar

NextNav Inc. provides positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) solutions in the United States — a would-be terrestrial complement to GPS, with the equity trading on spectrum upside rather than current fundamentals. The numbers are extreme: forward P/E of -17.9, price-to-sales of 444x, gross margin negative, and “16% of the float is short — squeeze fuel, and a crowd that fights rallies.” Coverage is thin but loud: 3 analysts, strong_buy rating, targets from $22 low to $33.67 mean to $50 high against a $12.73 tape — the street is well ahead of price, which cuts both ways here. Next earnings land 2026-08-11, inside the window. The news rhymes with the flow: Zacks upgraded NN to Strong Buy on 2026-07-23 and separately flagged a “buy the dip” after a 24.6% four-week drop, while Simply Wall St. noted spectrum upside on 2026-07-21 — but note the biggest prints (July 16, July 21) preceded the loudest headlines. Quiet accumulation into the tape, then the upgrade. That ordering is the better tell.

The tape, day by day

The pattern is escalation, not a one-off: small $20-call probes early, then two heavyweight structured entries ($2.19M and $1.23M) that reset the whole complex. Bull premium totals $4.39M against $1.87M bearish, roughly 70% dominance across 8 bullish sessions. The same call ladder — $18, $19, $20, $25 — keeps reappearing under different expiries.

The receipts

Open-interest confirmation separates real positioning from noise. The anchor print — $18C 2026-12-18, 7,100 contracts, $2.19M — verified clean: OI went from 57 to 7,171, an oi_delta of 7,114. New money. The $19C 2027-01-15 vertical, 5,000 lots, $1.23M also confirmed: OI 7,502 to 12,505. The $25C 2027-01-15, 1,142 lots, $176,993 confirmed too (OI 3,533 to 4,543). And the $12P sale that builds the floor — 998 contracts, $119,790 — confirmed 746 to 1,444. What did not confirm: the heavy $20C 2027-01-15 cluster from July 17 (alert size 1,289) actually saw OI fall 14,658 to 8,740 — those did not register as new longs, and the bear-structure note lists $20C 2027-01-15 call sales totaling over $950K. Read the $20 line as contested; read $18, $19, and $25 as accumulation.

The levels

The defended map is narrow and specific: institutions sold the $12 put for $119,790 — they are paid to defend $12. That is the floor with money behind it. Our invalidation sits at $11.27. Between here and there is normal noise; on a name this volatile, expect a -6% to -8% shake-out toward the $11.70s before any move — that is typical, not thesis failure. Below $11.27 on a daily close, the floor logic breaks.

Three ways to play it

All prices below are Black-Scholes estimates for sizing — check the chain before entry. IV is estimated near 108% from this name’s own prints.

Call debit spread $13/15 (2026-12-18)

• Legs: BUY 1x $13C / SELL 1x $15C, 2026-12-18

• Est. cost $65/contract; max loss $65; max gain $135; breakeven $13.65; R:R 2.08; estimated chance of profit 0.34

• Why: mirrors the institutional call strikes ($13 bought, $15 the next level up).

• Warning: exit by ~20 sessions; don’t ride the last two weeks of theta.

Put credit spread $11.5/10.5 (2026-09-18)

• Legs: SELL 1x $11.5P / BUY 1x $10.5P, 2026-09-18

• Est. credit $45/contract; max loss $55; max gain $45; breakeven $11.05; estimated chance of profit 0.57; prob-touch 0.94

• Why: same floor, hard-capped risk — max loss $55 vs $45 collected.

• Warning: runs through earnings (2026-08-11) — size for the gap or close before. Exit at 50% of credit or 21 days to expiry.

Risk reversal — sell 2x $11.5P (2026-09-18) / own $18C (2026-12-18)

• Legs: SELL 2x $11.5P 2026-09-18, BUY 1x $18C 2026-12-18

• Est. net credit $55/contract; max loss $2,245; max gain uncapped; breakeven $11.50; estimated chance of profit 0.53

• Why: date-skewed — the short 49-day puts decay fast at their floor while you own the SAME $18 2026-12-18 call line institutions bought, for ~$55 net credit; if the puts expire worthless, roll and sell again.

• Warnings: assignment on 2x puts below $11.5 — only size what you’d happily own there; margin account required. Close short puts at 80% capture, ride the calls while the floor holds.

Exit discipline across all three: sell into the first +5-8% move, out by ~20 sessions. Advanced hands can look at the bench — a $11.5 cash-secured put or the aggressive $25 calls (the tape’s most-bought line at $3,596K premium) — for the two tails of this trade.

This is what a weekly setup post will look like but will all be auto-generated within the flow app.

I’m really spending all of my limited time making sure this is perfect and useful (forward testing the plays the app has produced so far) - the goal is to identify swing trades based on my indicators that are confirmed in the options market. The app will have all flow as well in the flow tape section so will be able to see all flow in the database but really trying to curate it as much as possible, as I know a lot of people would love to have solid setups that they don’t need to actively monitor each day.

1 New Buy Orders at the Open for Monday (7/13/26), will get us to 20 max positions after the sell of BBW at the close today.

BUY at the 2026-07-13 OPEN — MOO orders (1) · ~5.0% ($505) each

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4 New Buy Orders at the Open for tomorrow (7/9/26), will get us to 19 position allocation after the 3 sells today at close (CBOE/SM/AKAM):

BUY at the 2026-07-09 OPEN — MOO orders (4) · ~5.0% ($507) each

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1 New Buy Order at the Open for tomorrow (7/8/26), will get us to 19 position allocation after the 2 sells today at close (MORN / PNRG):

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1 New Buy Order at the Open today (7/7/26):

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8 New Buy Orders at the Open today (7/6/26), will get us to our 20 position max allocation:

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A little background on me for those who don’t know — I’m a Supply Chain executive by trade, so I tend to keep a close pulse on any market I’m personally involved in (ingredients, freight, warehousing, etc). I also tend to do business with really good companies and spend a lot of time analyzing the partners I decide to work with.

PTRN is one of those companies, which is why I invested in them on their IPO day. Samsara is another one where I’ve personally seen their new tech and it’s pretty remarkable, and solves a real issue that has lived within supply chain’s and that is visibility, at an affordable cost.

The Tracking Label

Here’s the product: a paper-thin, adhesive-backed, single-use Bluetooth label with a 45-day battery. No lithium, no hazmat, which means it’s cleared for air, ground, and rail, and you throw it away when the shipment lands. Slap it on a box or a pallet, activate it with one scan of the BOL in their app, done.

The clever part isn’t the label. It’s the network behind it. The label itself has no cellular connection. Instead, it gets picked up by the Samsara Network: millions of Samsara-connected devices already out in the world (trucks, trailers, warehouse scanners, phones) covering 99% of major U.S. roads. Every Samsara-equipped vehicle that drives past your shipment becomes a listening post. If you’ve used an Apple AirTag, it’s the same playbook. Apple’s Find My network works because there are a billion iPhones out there. Samsara spent a decade building the freight equivalent, and the Tracking Label is how they monetize it.

The problem this solves is one anyone in supply chain knows intimately: once freight leaves your dock on an LTL or truckload carrier, it goes dark. You get two data points, picked up and delivered, and everything in between is a prayer and a check-call. Meanwhile cargo theft is running roughly $35 billion a year in the U.S., up 60% year over year. The existing answers all have a fatal flaw. Cellular trackers are too expensive to put on everything, RFID only works where someone installed readers, and carrier tracking data is milestone-based garbage. A disposable label that rides a pre-built network kills all three problems at once.

Valuation and upside

IOT trades around $36 with a ~$21B market cap, against FY2027 revenue guidance of roughly $2.0B. Call it ~10x forward sales. Last quarter they beat on both lines: revenue of $478.8M, up 30.5% YoY, with EPS of $0.17 vs. $0.13 expected. Gross margins run in the mid-70s and they’re free-cash-flow positive. So you’re paying a premium software multiple, but for a rare profile: durable ~30% growth, sticky multi-year contracts (~98% of revenue is recurring subscription), and a physical installed base competitors can’t replicate with code.

My simple framework: if they compound revenue at 25% for three years, that’s roughly $3.9 to $4B in revenue by FY2030. Hold the multiple at 10x and you’re looking at a ~$40B company, about a double. Even in a de-rating scenario where the multiple compresses to 7x, growth alone gets you to ~$27B, or ~35% upside. The bear case is deceleration below 20% plus multiple compression, which is real risk at this valuation. The stock’s 52-week range is $23 to $47, so the market has already priced both stories in the past year.

What the model doesn’t capture yet is the Tracking Label itself. Samsara’s core business sells subscriptions on durable hardware. The label is a consumable. Every shipment burns one. If this lands even modestly across their existing base of freight customers, it’s a recurring revenue stream layered on top of the subscription business, sold into accounts they already own. That optionality is what got me to size the position now rather than wait.

From a pure technical standpoint, we see it backfilled and held well against IPO highs, and is now climbing higher. This looks like a ~3 year consolidation getting ready to push higher in my opinion:

The bottleneck Samsara solves, at a fraction of the cost

The shipment visibility market has been “solved” three times, badly. Cellular GPS trackers work but cost real money per unit, need charging, and require reverse logistics to get the device back. So companies only tag their most critical freight and fly blind on the rest. RFID is cheap per tag but useless without reader infrastructure at every chokepoint, which is why adoption stalled. And the software visibility platforms are only as good as the carrier data feeding them: milestone pings, not location.

The industry’s actual constraint was never the sensor, it was the network. Per 451 Research, over half the market absorbs higher hardware costs on GPS/cellular just to guarantee coverage, while cheaper Bluetooth alternatives sat at ~39% adoption because the infrastructure was fragmented. Samsara didn’t have to build that infrastructure for this product. It was a byproduct of a decade of selling telematics. That’s the moat: a competitor can copy the label in a quarter; they can’t copy the millions of listening devices already on the road.

Samsara hasn't published list pricing, but their CEO has said labels will run in the single-digit dollars depending on volume. For context, a cellular tracker is a $100+ device that needs charging, a return trip, and its own data plan. Even generously assuming you reuse one across dozens of shipments, you're still managing a fleet of hardware. At a few bucks a label, the math flips: you stop asking "which shipments are worth tracking" and start asking "why wouldn't I tag everything over $X in value." That reframing is the whole product.

Trade Structures to Consider outside of just long commons:

1. Grabbed shares today for long term portfolio but here are a few other considerations:

   1. Put ratio spread (1x2):

      1. Buy 1x Jan '27 $32 put, sell 2x $28 puts, structured for a net credit. Three outcomes: stock stays above $32 → keep the credit; stock lands between $28-32 at expiry → the long put pays off on top of the credit (max profit at $28); stock craters through $28 → you're net short one put and get assigned around an effective basis of roughly $24-25 (strike minus spread value minus credit). It's the most "paid to buy the dip" structure of the group, but it's also the most path-sensitive and the ugliest mark-to-market in a fast selloff since the naked short put gamma bites hardest exactly when the tape is worst.

   2. Risk reversal (sell put + buy call) - probably the best fit for my actual view

      1. Sell the Jan '27 ~$28-30 put, use the premium to finance the Jan '27 ~$40-42 call. Can branch this out to 2028 expiry if the spreads make sense (may be a bit wide). Goal being to get near zero cost. This is the "I'm bullish and willing to get long lower" trade: stock rips, our call captures it; stock dumps, you're assigned at an effective basis in the high-$20s, which per our own model is where the risk/reward gets silly.

Cheers!

DGP ~$134.20 → 3 sh
GLOB ~$30.01 → 13 sh
OLN ~$21.71 → 18 sh
CRCL ~$73.55 → 5 sh
KRMN ~$46.36 → 8 sh
EPAM ~$80.74 → 5 sh
CSGP ~$30.25 → 13 sh
ZG ~$31.18 → 12 sh

Book & P&L · $10,000 start

Equity $10,143
Leverage 0.76× · gross 46%
12/20 open · YTD +1.4% ($+143) · vs SPY -0.5%

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Strategy Overview

1. Summary

A fully systematic, long-only mean-reversion strategy for liquid US equities. It buys quality, liquid names when they become statistically oversold and begin to turn back up, holds a diversified book, and exits each position once the move reverts or a fixed time limit is reached. Everything is 100% rules-based — no discretion, no news, no narratives, no forecasting. The edge is a repeatable statistical pattern harvested broadly across hundreds of names, not a handful of high-conviction bets.

2. The edge (high level)

Markets overshoot to the downside short-term and tend to snap back. The strategy systematically identifies names that have been pushed statistically stretched below their recent trend and are showing the first signs of turning, takes a position, and harvests the reversion. It is a breadth strategy: each individual trade carries a small, positive expectancy; run across many concurrent positions with fast turnover, the law of large numbers compounds that thin edge into the return stream. It is deliberately not a momentum or stock-picking strategy.

3. Universe & selection

Broad, liquid US equity universe (~1,000 names) filtered purely on characteristics — liquidity, price level, and sufficient daily range. Names too illiquid, too cheap, or too quiet to trade cleanly are screened out.

• Sector-agnostic. Signals fire wherever names get oversold; there is no sector tilt or rotation.

• No performance-based selection. The universe is never narrowed to “names that did well.” This was validated the hard way — walk-forward testing showed that picking the historically best names hurts this strategy (it overfits and collapses out-of-sample). The universe is defined by characteristics only.

4. Portfolio construction

• Diversified and equal-weight — every position is sized to the same target weight; no single name dominates.

• ~20 concurrent positions max, capped per name, so idiosyncratic blowups are contained (a single name is a small fraction of the book).

• Fast turnover — average holding period is short (positions exit quickly when the bounce works), so capital recycles many times a year and compounds the per-trade edge.

• The book scales into developing setups to improve the average entry.

5. Risk management

Three layers, deliberately no per-trade price stops (testing showed tight stops chop winners and a wide “catastrophe” stop actually deepened drawdowns by clustering losses in crashes):

1. Per-trade time cap — a position that hasn’t reverted within a set window is closed, so non-reverters can’t bleed indefinitely.

2. Portfolio diversification — ~20 uncorrelated-ish positions average out single-name noise; sizing bounds any one disaster.

3. Volatility-targeting overlay — total book exposure is scaled to hold risk near a steady target, using modest margin leverage in calm markets and automatically de-risking when volatility spikes. Because large losses cluster in high-volatility regimes, the book is naturally smallest exactly when crashes hit — which roughly halved the worst historical drawdown while preserving the return.

6. Execution

• Enters at the open (market-on-open) and exits at the close (market-on-close), trading the deepest-liquidity auctions of the day — no after-hours.

• Liquid names only, so spreads are tight; all results are stated net of realistic transaction costs.

7. Risk profile

High-octane long-equity exposure: it co-moves with the market and does so with higher volatility and fatter tails. Its return distribution is many small wins plus occasional sharp losses, smoothed at the book level by diversification — except in crashes, when correlations spike and the diversification temporarily fails. That single failure mode (fast, broad selloffs) is the entire risk story, and it’s what the volatility overlay is designed to manage.

8. Methodology & integrity

• Costs are mandatory — no gross/headline numbers; everything net of realistic slippage + commissions + margin costs.

• No look-ahead — signals act on completed data; entries fill the next open.

• Walk-forward validation for any selection claim — no in-sample-picked universes.

• Broad, not lottery-ticket, edge — the top 1% of winners account for only ~16% of gross profit, so no single moonshot carries the record.

9. Current status

The strategy is running as a live forward-test — daily buy/sell signals and a running equity curve published in real time, building a genuinely out-of-sample track record from here forward.

Full Tear Sheet + Backtest Results + Discord Link

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The screen flagged 97 setups across the liquid US market this week. Below are the top 10 by setup quality.

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## 1. [SNEX] — BREAKOUT · score 64.9

- Up 86% over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **17%-deep** base; ADR **4.2%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $117.23 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $130.69.

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## 2. [ATEX] — BREAKOUT · score 64.1

- Up **116%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **17%-deep** base; ADR **7.2%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $68.31 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $82.50.

---

## 3. [HTFL] — BREAKOUT · score 63.0

- Up **60%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **17%-deep** base; ADR **7.6%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $32.60 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $33.24.

---

## 4. [GRC] — BREAKOUT · score 59.7

- Up **43%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **12%-deep** base; ADR **2.9%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $82.10 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $84.59.

---

## 5. [ATI] — BREAKOUT · score 58.3

- Up **36%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **13%-deep** base; ADR **4.1%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $183.30 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $198.48.

---

## 6. [CARE] — BREAKOUT · score 57.1

- Up **49%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **10%-deep** base; ADR **2.9%**.
- Trigger: **breaking out now** through the $29.43 pivot on rising volume.
- Last close: $29.88.

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## 7. [AIRS] — COILING · score 75.3

- Up **145%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **18%-deep** base; ADR **8.4%**.
- Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$5.79**.
- Last close: $5.35.

---

## 8. [PACK] — COILING · score 75.1

- Up **125%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **11%-deep** base; ADR **5.1%**.
- Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$7.15**.
- Last close: $7.30.

---

## 9. [VSTS] — COILING · score 73.6

- Up **75%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **9%-deep** base; ADR **4.4%**.
- Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$13.52**.
- Last close: $13.19.

---

## 10. [KFRC] — COILING · score 72.4

- Up **94%** over the last three months — already a leader.
- Consolidating in a **14%-deep** base; ADR **3.9%**.
- Trigger: coiling — watching for a break above **$48.81**.
- Last close: $50.00.

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