Morning Thoughts 9/30/25
Grab a coffee and let's see what things are looking like for today
Gm -
Some news at 10am ET today with JOLTS and Consumer Confidence but let’s take a look at some key levels today on the indices and what to watch for.
Gold (Dec Contract):
Sharp 2% decline overnight from the sell signals which will now be key to any further upside in gold (3892-3898) - found some solid buyers and support at prior week highs 3824.6 and my script firing off a ton of buy signals.
Bulls will need to break back above 3853.3-3860.3 to retest the highs. Can try shorting this zone on the first test, or wait for reclaim, backtest to hold, to try longs targeting that 3892-3898 area.
ES:
Slight bear lean here at the moment for me, yesterday morning was a good clue with the sell signals to get some risk off at RTH open, but in no-mans land right now. As I tweeted yesterday, I expect to see 6690-6692 area bid, and I do not want to touch longs until we get there and see the orderflow. Common theme is sweeping the level so watch for that, and long the reclaim - but use this area as your bias. Bulls defend, and we should drift back up to 6730, if bears can flush below and contain price below, expect for 6670 area to trade and a great spot to try some swing longs.
NQ:
Got risk off on swing longs as I tweeted yesterday at 24957 level. Much like ES, in no-mans land. I don’t like longs here until a backtest + hold of key 24730.50 level, a few nice rejections in globex on my 24855 level.
Pretty simple read on NQ for me, as long as bulls defend 730.50, my view is a retest of ATHs (possible poke above) - bulls fail 730.50 and risk opens for a move lower back to 24521.
RTY:
No changes from my write up on RTY on the original post, bearish read here with 2381-2373 area as a likely target to look for longs.
Have a great trading day!
Cheers,
-gtd