The Week Ahead (10/12)

Volatility is back! Let's take advantage of it

Happy Sunday and hope you all are having a great weekend. Seems every time I need to travel, crazy shit happens in the market. I was on my last long flight Friday and it probably saved me some money as none of my orders would go through haha, but it appears as though Trump is going full TACO mode again. Let’s dive into the charts and some trade setups:

NQ:

Swing buy printed right at globex open tonight, and a reclaim of key 24730.50 pivot which I’ve talked about for quite some time will provide a sustained bid higher. I don’t love that we have yet another gap as they can take time to revisit, so just stick with the pivot level and manage bias from there. Looking at the data, some strong buyers showed up near close on Friday, seems everyone is used to TACO by now.

Plan for me:

• Above 24730.50, lean on longs - would not surprise me if they found a way to walk this back to 25179 this week.

• Below 24730.50, look for shorts to target gap fill from globex open.

ES:

Much like NQ, printed a swing buy at globex open with a large gap below. 6670 was a big level last week and part of the lower weekly range for me, thus going to use it as my pivot for this week (longs above, shorts below). Large buyers came in on Friday near end of day around 6620-6618 so that will be another area I’d mark on your charts as a bias reference.

One scenario I’d look for is to fill that gap and buy a reclaim of 6620-6618. Feel like it’s going to be another headline driven week and who knows what side of the bed Orange Man is going to wake up on, so be nimble, stick to your plan and take profits, set stop losses, and embrace the volatility.

GC:

Gold still respecting the signals pretty well and caught a nice bid again from our previous zone 3955-3968 - I’m still in buy any dip on gold mode, especially given the uncertainty right now and orange man stirring things up again. Would look to see if gold can break to new ATHs here and buy a backtest if orderflow supports it, shorts do not look appealing me to.

Crypto:

Solana held right at the AVWAP from the ATH as well as key 173-177 support area. If it can get back above 200-202, it should have no issues reversing the entire sell off.

BTC continues to defend the recent buy signal and until it can sustain a flush below there, buyers are in control.

ETH same thing, could not clear that sell signal, buyers remain in control imo and back above 4263 looks like new ATHs on the horizon.

I hate to say it, but I think this flush was necessary for crypto to go higher - wipe out all of the leverage and march forward. Good lesson that nobody is safe with leverage and you can easily lose everything if you’re not responsible.

Trade Setups:

I’ll plan on doing another write up either tomorrow or Tuesday for trade setups. Given the implied large gap up tomorrow, I don’t want to speculate where I think stuff will open at, etc - would like to see what happens and where things sit tomorrow and will run thru charts and plan from there.

Have a great rest of the weekend and be on the look out for another post tomorrow or tuesday with trade setups!

-gtd