The Week Ahead (10/20)
Let's have another great week, grab your coffee and let's dive in
Happy Monday!
Apologies for the late post, I was having some technical difficulties last night and just gave up on trying to get everything to work, but we’re good now and looking forward to another great week. First, let’s recap the indices last week:
Two major NQ levels I noted: 24730.50 which provided many many points and 25179 which I expected us to trade last week (last week high of 25179.50).
On ES, I noted “One scenario I’d look for is to fill that gap and buy a reclaim of 6620-6618”, which led to 100+ points on that trade, and there were a number of good trades off of the 6670 pivot level.
CRM/ORCL had nice moves but ultimately gave back all of the gains rather quickly. MRK trade setup is still valid and should make a nice move higher back above $85. TSLA looks really good here siting above 441, would like to see any pullbacks hold there and we should get continuation higher.
Crypto setups all remain bullish and as I tweeted, caught a really nice trade on SOL around that 177 key support area, trimmed at 192, and now have a partial position on looking for 200-202 to exit.
Looking ahead at this week:
NQ:
No changes for me this week on the key levels, bulls will need to take out 25179 this week if they want new highs, otherwise just on the eye test this looks like a little bearish consolidation pattern:
25179 - key resistance, a push above + hold will target new highs for me and will be extremely bullish
24957 - below opens up a move back to our key bias level (730.50)
24730.50 - Pivot, i’ll continue to buy pullbacks into this level or moves below and a reclaim of the level
24421.50 - target on flushes below 730.50
24249 - my low end of the range this week
ES:
Key pivot level for me this week is 6705, we got a few really nice sells off of that 6746-6750 area I tweeted about last week so that will remain my key upside resistance bulls will need to reclaim + hold for a push higher this week:
Plan on ES for me:
Hold pivot 6705 and longs to 6750. Above 6750, longs targeting 6790/6801-6806/6840
Below 6705 and shorts targeting last week’s 6670 level. Below there we flush back to 6618 which is a must hold.
GC:
We note new bias levels based on the swing buy prints that showed up late day on Friday at 4210-4224, will look to buy any pullbacks there, bias for me remains to buy dips on Gold.
Crypto:
No changes to ETH, holding 3796-3616 zone is bullish, needs to reclaim 4263 to push to new highs.
SOL held where it needed to again, needs a push back above 200-202 and lock out to push toward 222-237 again, remain bullish unless a flush back below 173.
BTC interesting that it has been the weakest of the three, but it flushed below and reclaimed the key area there (one could say a look below and fail), and looks strong here again - expecting a push to back to 118k-119k.
Trade Setups:
TSLA:
I love the look of TSLA longs here while above 441, the only variable is earnings coming up on 10/22. I have the December call spreads I noted in last week’s trade setups and will ride those thru earnings (defined risk). A good reaction on earnings and I think TSLA sees $500 this week.
META:
Meta printing a few daily buy signals and historically, these have done well. Again, variable here is earnings on 10/29, so one way I would play this is weekly calls this week to see if we can capture a sharp move up from these buy signals + holding that large volume node 719-710.
If it gaps up this morning, watch for an early sell to 716-717, can try weekly $727.50 calls for ~$7.60. Cut for a loss on any moves below 713.
SNOW:
SNOW back on my radar for some calls this week. Continues to ride the 21ema on pullbacks and still looks pretty explosive to me. I like the 11/21 $260 calls trading around $9, trade becomes invalid / sell for loss on any close below the 21ema (currently sitting at $236.04).
Will be active this week on twitter/x with updates and hope you all have a great week trading, cheers!
-gtd