The Week Ahead (11/17)

vol, vol, and more vol!

Happy Monday all, hope you guys all had a great weekend! Let’s dive right in:

Last week was interesting to say the least, I think we did a pretty good job of exiting our swing NQ longs from 24730 on 11/7 near the fade zone (25728-25791), my only regret is not tossing on a few small shorts up there. I felt my bias shifting super bullish which is why I didn’t, and from a discipline standpoint, I’m happy that I at least respected the area enough to not get greedy on the long side. Trying to do a better job of not wanting to catch every move and be more selective in setups.

Gold was looking great and then wham, massive kick in the nuts. Always easy to say in hindsight I should have cut half the position when I tweeted it as an option but I still believe in the setup and can dive in more on that below.

Levels to Watch for the week:

NQ:

If you haven’t already, just mark all of my NQ levels on your chart as these won’t change week over week unless we see a break either up or down from this large range we’ve been in.

Major pivot for me this week is our old 25355 level which we saw reject in globex pretty hard. Above there, bulls look in the clear for a push to 25580 / key zone 25728-25791. Sellers remain in control for now while price is below 355.

Additional levels to watch for intraday trades:

• Prior week close: 25147.50

• Sunday Globex open: 25142.25

Can use both of these as intraday pivots to play off of.

ES:

A lot of our old levels over the past few weeks are still valid and active as we’re in this large range. Major pivot where bulls can take control is the 6800-6805 area that rejected in globex.

Bulls must hold 6760 else we spill over to 6740, 6707, and revisit of 6670 below there.

Above 6800-6805, and we can see a large squeeze higher to ~6840 / 6860 / 6900 if bulls are able to reclaim and hold.

GC (Gold):

Nastie nastie sell off on Friday and bulls have some work to do. The setup still looks fine to me as long as we hold 4050. Any sustained push below that reopens a visit of 4000 area so its a must must must hold. Pretty disgusting way of backtesting the range breakout but as long as 4050 holds, that’s all that was imo

Hold 4050 and we can work our way back up to test 4121-4151 zone, reclaim and we look good to push higher again.

Trade Setups:

This is a big week with NVDA earnings which will ultimately decide the route the market takes. I do not like initiating swing positions ahead of major market events so will be a relatively quiet week for me on this front.

Regarding the 11/21 TSLA calls, above $410 and we can backtest the 420-423 area where i’d look to exit. I only grabbed 2 of the calls so will let this one ride and see how it plays out.

One setup I’m keeping a close eye on is CRWV: if this thing keeps dropping, I’m going to look to try some shares long near $60-$62 area, I’ve been waiting for this area to trade and looks like there’s a chance we can get there

For crypto, ETH looks the best out of the bunch right now, but I’m largely disinterested in trading it. AVWAP from Dec 2024 highs is at 3074 and decent reaction off that area so far with additional support below at 3030-2950 so I don’t think longs are awful here. Working on another buy signal here on the daily as well (last one we failed and saw the puke lower):

As always, will be active in the Substack chat + twitter with any major updates but that’s all for now!

Cheers,

-gtd