Week Ahead 12/1

Good morning! Hope you all had a nice holiday and were able to relax a bit & recharge away from the screens.

Should be no surprise the early weakness given the holiday pump and traders returning to desks, but bears have some work to do if they want to get back in control here.

ES:

Last week I noted in the chat the 6670-6680 zone to use as a pivot and we got a test on Tuesday and never looked back, heading all the way up to our old 6860 level, and have sold off from there:

Plan for this week:

6800-6805 key zone, below opens a quick flush down to 6760 where bulls must hold or else we can see a sweep of 6740 and bears can take control again. Use the levels on the chart and watch the tape for confirmation.

If bulls want to keep the party going, they will need to get above 6860, opens 6900 & 6920 on the upside, new ATHs above there.

NQ:

Traded near our 25580 level in globex last night and sold from there back below key 25355 level. Levels are the same as they have been, use them to play off of:

Plan for the week:

Key pivot is 25180-25195 area: below opens up a quick drop down to 24957, which is a must hold for bulls or else we revisit our old friend 24730.50.

For upside, bulls need to take out 25580 which opens a visit to 25730-25790 zone, can trade 26000 above there.

It’s been a good year, and if you’ve had a good year, I’d recommend not trying to be a hero this last month. I tend to size way down in December and only take trades when good setups appear - I’ve done it in the past where I get crazy in December and give back a chunk of gains for literally no reason at all. It’s wind down time for me and time to relax a bit before what I’m expecting to be a very volatile Q1 again.

I’ll probably spend some time this month doing some writeups on my favorite swing trade setups to trade + intraday strategies (ie the 10min opening range) and posts like that. Obviously if I see good setups, I’ll post them but not looking to initiate anything new at the moment.

One thing to note, on longer timeframe the regime is still red (sell rips), until that confirms back to green, I’m happy to sit back and not chase this move:

Cheers!